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How much should I bet?

It is both obvious and counter-intuitive. The more you have of something, the less value you have for each individual thing.

Volume 10: Health Insurance, Part V

What was in the American Health Care Act? How would it have affected the system? Why did it fail to pass the House? What will happen to Obam

AHCA: Where do we stand now? UPDATED, 4:15 p.m.

Ok - I'm doing one of those poorly researched quick reaction things again. Because things are moving fast, it's almost impossible to keep up. I'll update more through the day. As of yesterday around 6pm, you could confidently say that the AHCA could not pass the House in the then-current form. There were at least 30 "No's", and possibly many more. Recall that 23 No's are enough to block passage. The opposition is coming from both sides: so-called moderates, concerned about the 24 million people losing coverage and House Freedom Caucus (HFC) members, ultra-conservatives who wanted to end even more of the ACA's insurance protections. The No's appeared split almost exactly 50-50. Around 10pm, w

Taxes and Growth Rates and Plenty of Charts

What's the most famous thing ever drawn on a dinner napkin? I would say it's probably the Laffer Curve. While the idea had previously existed, it was at a dinner with Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and somebody named Jude Wanniski when Arthur Laffer drew a relation between tax rates and the amount of tax collected. Most famous, perhaps, but I would also say the "most incorrect" or at least "most mis-used." The concept of the Laffer Curve is simple: as tax rates decrease, people have more incentive to work, and therefore they work more. As they work more, the economy grows, and therefore the government takes in more revenue. By this theory, cutting tax rates will, lead to an increase in governm

Volume 9: Fiscal Policy, Part I: Taxes

Where does it come from? “There’s one for you, nineteen for me.” – The Beatles The U.S. Federal Government does almost everything on a massive scale. The rest of the world shares eight aircraft carriers. The U.S. has ten. Eisenhower wanted some highways like the ones he saw in Germany? Let’s build 47,856 miles of Interstates. The Federal Government spends close to $1.1 trillion per year just on health. That’s more than the entire GDP of Mexico – and 180 other countries. But the Federal Government is almost as good at collecting money as they are at spending it. To pay for all these goodies, they need to collect $3.6 trillion each year. That’s $10 billion per day, seven days a week, 365 days

EPIC adventure: Live-Tweeting the American Healthcare Act (or, "AHA!")

Tonight, starting at 7:30 EST, we will be live-tweeting all 60 or 120 pages (reporting isn't clear) of the "AHA!" Act. I will read the entire bill, line by line, and tell you what the lines mean. Then you don't have to read it, ever. I promise. To get involved live, you MUST follow @Lobby_Seven. There is no other way. Unless you wait and then I'll post it here later. Most importantly - what are your questions? Send them to me on twitter, FB, here, anywhere. This is going to be EPIC you want to get involved. Remember, @realDonaldTrump has promised us: "Something terrific" "A lot less expensive" "I'm going to take care of everybody" "Great healthcare for a fraction of the price" "Immediately!

Garry Kasparov: Winter Is Coming

We're starting a new type of post here at L7 - the Reading List. A frequent question I'm asked is where my information and ideas come from. This Reading List is the best way I can think of to describe how I come to have my worldview. If you see me quoting something heavily in a Volume, you can bet it will end up here eventually. If it is included here, you can consider it an endorsement; there is just too much crap in the world for me to pan books I didn't like. I'll of course mention disagreements I have with books that I am recommending. A bit of disclosure: Just because I add something to the List doesn't mean I read it recently. But it probably means I've been thinking about it recently

EMERGENCY TAKE: GOP "Health" Plan

If the last clause there is correct - then this literally is taking Medicaid / Subsidies from those @ 200% of the federal poverty line and b

Yes, there is apparently an International Society for Bayesian Analysis

Somehow, I'd never come across this before, but there are people who are way more into Bayesian Theory than I am. I guess I shouldn't be surprised - applying Rule 34 of the Internet (somewhat Not Safe For Work) would take this to an extreme that I can't quite picture. The International Society for Bayesian Analysis seems to be almost entirely focused on serious scholarship. I think this is unfortunate - my point in Volume 7 was that Bayes should be accessible to everybody. It's useful to people who do not attend mathematical conferences professionally (and that's nothing against those who do). In any case, even if I wish Bayesianism had more help in reaching the rest of us, I'm amazed by loo

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