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Final House Ratings!




We're almost there.

After an election cycle that seems to have lasted longer than an ice age, we'll finally start counting some votes. Therefore, it's time to get all of our FINAL house ratings locked in for posterity.


A few notes:

  1. Don't get too hung up on whether a race shows 1% vs. 0% probability. When we get into log-loss, all races will be capped at 99% certainty or lower. This is necessary for fairness as raters are not taking this analysis into account when setting their ratings.

  2. Unless they decide to make my life more complex than it needs to be today, all of the qualitative ratings should be accurate. Based on when I scraped / downloaded the quantitative forecasters' data, there will be some small discrepancies, but nothing material.

  3. For the final scoring, I'll likely ignore any races that are contested (e.g. NC-09 in 2018). After some back and forth, it seems the MN-02 will happen on time (it's a strange story). If, for some reason, it isn't, then we'll ignore that race as well.

  4. We don't know how quickly the races will be decided, so I don't have a schedule for when I'll be writing again.

  5. I should have put this call out sooner, but feel free to email me your own picks! As long as they are in a reasonable format (.xls or .csv), it's easy for me to check and see how you did against the experts. Or, feel free to post me on just a subset of races where you have a strong view. If I get a enough entries to make it a competition, the winner will get a LobbySeven mug.

If I can think of anything else, I'll let you know. Otherwise, here is a link to a Google Sheet, or have a look below.


To our forecasters...happy hunting...


UPDATE 12pm: A couple last minute changes incorporated.




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