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Volume 24: The 2018 Election, Who Projected It Best?

A log-loss comparative analysis of quantitative and qualitative 2018 U.S. House of Representatives election projections “Well, how did your projections do?” – Dale Cohodes. It will come as a shock to nobody that I maintained a personal set of projections for the recently completed elections to the House of Representatives. It may surprise you more to know that reviewing my projections alongside the so-called “professionals” gives us an excellent opportunity to think through one of our favorite topics—probability. Elections are an interesting class of random event: probabilistic with a single trial and a discrete outcome. The tools we have to predict their outcome—polls, demographics, past



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