Volume 25: Back to the House
A bigger and better log-loss comparative analysis of quantitative and qualitative projections for the 2020 U.S. House of Representatives...
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Volume 24: The 2018 Election, Who Projected It Best?
A log-loss comparative analysis of quantitative and qualitative 2018 U.S. House of Representatives election projections “Well, how did...
How much should I bet?
It is both obvious and counter-intuitive. The more you have of something, the less value you have for each individual thing.
Yes, there is apparently an International Society for Bayesian Analysis
Somehow, I'd never come across this before, but there are people who are way more into Bayesian Theory than I am. I guess I shouldn't be...
Volume 7: Bayesian Analysis
Why You Can Never Be Sure of Anything “Bet you $50 it hasn't.” – xkcd #1132 People don’t like thinking probabilistically. They crave...